The role of technology and policy in transforming online culture – chronicled by David Ellis
Pew
One more Pew question: Apps vs Web – the winner? (4)
100 days
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IV. Apps vs Web: Winner?
[option #1 - my pick] — In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific applications (apps) accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. The ease of use and perceived security and quality-assurance characteristics of apps will be seen as superior when compared with the open Web. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology-users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important and useful than in the past and apps are the dominant factor in people’s lives.
[option #2] — In 2020, the World Wide Web is stronger than ever in users’ lives. The open Web 
continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, Droid devices, and their progeny – the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet” – will be useful as specialized options for a finite number of information and entertainment functions. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful and is the dominant factor in people’s lives.
More from the Pew Internet survey: the future of money (3)
101 days
by David Ellis
in Pew
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(Please see the 2 previous posts in this series for the setup: multitasking teens + higher ed.)
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III. The future of money: What IS your “wallet”?
[option #1 - my pick] By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. People will come to trust and rely on personal hardware and software for handling monetary transactions over the Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries. People will not trust the use of near-field communications devices and there will not be major conversion of money to an all-digital-all-the-time format.
[option #2] By 2020, payments through the use of mobile devices will not have gained a lot of traction as a method for transactions. The security implications raise too many concerns among consumers about the safety of their money. And people are resistant to letting technology companies learn even more about their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in advanced countries. (more…)
More Pew Internet futures: whither higher ed in 2020?
115 days
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Question 2 from the 2011 Internet experts survey
In my previous post, I explained how Pew Internet and its partner Elon University run their global survey of Internet stakeholders (aka experts), on where the Internet is likely to be by 2020. I also provided some links to their resource pages. The survey is now in its 5th edition. Some 800 or 900 participants respond to questions framed in “tension pairs” – opposite points of view on issues currently getting a lot of notice from, well, Internet experts. (Btw, last year that group included the likes of Clay Shirky, Doc Searls, David Clark, Susan Crawford, Howard Rheingold, Craig Newmark and Esther Dyson.) Everyone is then asked to dig up an opinion or two and elaborate. (more…)
The Internet in 2020: the Pew-Elon experts survey, edition V
118 days
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The folks at Pew Internet (aka the Pew Internet & American Life Project) produce terrific research on what Americans do online. They have a visitor-friendly website teeming with information about Teens, Broadband, Health, Social Networking, Mobile, Technology User Types and the Digital Divide – and those are just the popular topics. Their work is a boon to my students, who have no source anything like Pew for Canadian data (with the partial exception of Statistics Canada and its Canadian Internet Users Survey, which is still very limited in its scope). (more…)
More on broadband access vs usage: Do the math, Ottawa
512 days
I’ve said usage trumps access, policy-wise – i.e. sheer access does nothing for the public interest or consumer welfare (though it does a lot for the self-serving proclamations of politicians, policymakers and ISPs: We’re the best!)
How does my principle look in numerical terms? I did some analysis of the Stats Can data mentioned by Karen Fournier (see previous post), and I have a modest suggestion.
Let’s go back to that reference on the Stats Can provincial data:
Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may boast 100 penetration, but according to Statistics Canada, 77, 76 and 73 per cent of residents, respectively, use the Internet.
Before we get to dialing these numbers down, let’s define our terms. The phrase “use the Internet” raises four terminological questions:
- One, respondents use the Internet on what kind of connection?
- Two, use it from where?
- Three, use it how often?
- And four, what’s the age cutoff? (more…)
Cellphone etiquette: absence makes the heart grow much fonder
521 days
I spend a lot of time here in my Starbucks office, a busy location near the centre of the universe (Yorkville). 
I’ve been coming here since the day this location opened, over a decade ago, when there was still a Chapters.
The clientele includes people from the neighboring boutiques, like Gucci, so it’s handy for shopping… along with undergrads from U of T, street people, academics, seniors, tradesmen ripping up the street, not quite a cross-section but getting there.
I’m mesmerized by the cellphone culture. I wish Roland Barthes were still here to tell us why 80% of women under 30 carry their phone in their hand, at all times, thrust out at the world, some in a feisty overhand grip, some in a reveal-all come-on, even as they balance hot drinks and purses the size of duffle bags. Are they saying, I’m here, I’m equipped? Or, I’m cyberlinked to somewhere much cooler?
But for now, what I really want to know is why almost everyone – demographically speaking – finds it acceptable to sit with a colleague or loved one or BFF while their smartphone sits conspicuously on the table between them, just begging to be called or texted. Apparently nothing is sacred any more and whatever you might have to say to close the sale, or console the GF about the BF, will never be as important as the hoped-for message that could arrive at any moment. (more…)
